Time Series Modeling and Forecasting of Temperature and Rainfall in Nigeria Using ARIMA Models
 
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Department of Environmental Management and Toxicology, Faculty of Life Sciences, University of Benin, P.M.B 1154, Benin City, Nigeria
 
 
Online publication date: 2026-05-21
 
 
Corresponding author
Sylvester Odiana   

sylvester.odiana@uniben.edu
 
 
 
KEYWORDS
ABSTRACT
Background:
Rainfall and temperature are two key factors to examine while assessing climate change. As such it future pattern need be predicted. It is a challenging task to provide an accurate prediction of air temperature and rainfall because of their complex and chaotic nature.

Objectives:
This study aimed at forecasting temperature and rainfall pattern in Sokoto, Abuja and Port Harcourt Nigeria from 1985 to 2050.

Methods:
Temperature and rainfall data of the cities from 1985 to 2023 were retrieved from the archived of the Nigerian Meteorological Agency which were used for the prediction using ARIMA (1, 1,3) model. Kendall correlation coefficient was also used to determined correlations.

Results:
The Arima model used is a good fit for the predictions. In Sokoto, (P = 0.213 and 0.246 > 0.05 and stationary R2 of 0.44 and 0 .461) for temperature and rainfall respectively. The prediction reveals increasing trends of both temperature and rainfall Kendall's tau_b reveals very strong positive correlation between the meteorological parameters and variation in years which are statistically significant (tau_b = 0.884 and 0.572 p = 0.000) for temperature and rainfall respectively. In Abuja, (P = 0.945 and 0.805 > 0.05 and stationary R2 of 0.230 and 0 .383) for temperature and rainfall respectively. The prediction reveals increasing trends in temperature and decreasing rainfall. Kendall's tau_b reveals strong positive correlation between temperature and variation in years and negative correlation between rainfall and variation in years which are statistically significant (tau_b = 0.539and -0.519 p = 0.000) for temperature and rainfall respectively. In Port Harcourt, (P = 0.949 and 0.570 > 0.05 and stationary R2 of 0.404 and 0 .377) for temperature and rainfall respectively. The prediction reveals increasing trends of both temperature and rainfall. Kendall's tau_b reveals very strong positive correlation between the meteorological parameters and variation in years which are statistically significant (tau_b = 0.914and 0.673 p = 0.000) for temperature and rainfall respectively.

Conclusion:
Therefore, It could be deduced that temperature and rainfall will continue to increase in all the cities except in Abuja where the rainfall will be decreasing. Effort should be made by relevant agencies to combat climate change.
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