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Risk Production and Urban Vulnerability in Conakry: Integrating Governance, Land Use, and Biophysical Factors in the 2025 Manéah Landslide
1
Department of sciences and environmental management, University of Liège, Liège, Belgium
2
Department of Social Sciences, University of Kankan, City, Guinea
3
Disaster Risk Reduction Department, National Center for Disaster Risk Management and Environmental Emergencies (CENAGCUE), Ministry of Environment and Sustainable Development (MEDD), Guinea
Submission date: 2026-03-23
Acceptance date: 2026-04-21
Online publication date: 2026-04-27
Publication date: 2026-06-30
Trends in Ecological and Indoor Environmental Engineering, 2026;4(2):44-59
KEYWORDS
landslideenvironmental riskvulnerabilitydisaster risk reductionsocio‑economic impact analysisenvironmental managementsustainable developmenturban planningearly warning system
ABSTRACT
Background:
Rapid urbanization in West Africa increasingly exposes populations to hazard-prone areas. The Manéah landslide (Conakry, Guinea, 2025) exemplifies the Anthropocene dynamic, where human decisions, governance failures, and unregulated urban expansion convert biophysical hazards into disasters, disproportionately affecting informal sector workers and residents on unstable slopes. Understanding these interactions is critical for risk-informed urban planning and environmental management.
Objectives:
This study aimed to identify systemic drivers of urban landslide risk in Manéah, integrating biophysical conditions, urban infrastructure, governance mechanisms, and social vulnerability, to provide empirically grounded insights for transformative resilience and disaster risk reduction.
Methods:
A mixed, sequential methodology was employed. Post-disaster fieldwork included a seven-day systematic survey of slope instability, GPS mapping, UAV imagery, and photographic documentation. A socio-economic survey (n=62) captured household losses, income disruption, and recovery expectations. Documentary analysis of ESIA and ESMP reports evaluated compliance and institutional oversight. Quantitative data were analysed using chi-square and Fisher’s exact tests in R, while qualitative data were coded thematically. Spatial analyses employed QGIS, generating slope and hazard maps. Triangulation of field observations, socio-economic responses, and institutional documentation allowed reconstruction of systemic risk drivers and identification of governance and social vulnerabilities amplifying disaster impacts.
Results:
Results reveal that informal sector workers and households on unstable slopes bore the greatest losses, with 95–100% reporting income disruption, while civil servants exhibited higher resilience due to formal employment. Directly affected persons overwhelmingly preferred permanent relocation (92%), whereas displaced households favoured return after stabilization (85%), confirmed by statistically significant chi-square and Fisher’s exact tests. The odds ratio of 242 indicates a stark divergence in recovery aspirations. ESIA and ESMP implementation was largely absent, illustrating governance deficits. Fragmented responsibilities among construction companies and weak regulatory enforcement amplified risk. Overall, disaster impacts were determined more by cumulative governance failures and social vulnerability than by biophysical hazards alone, highlighting structural inequalities.
Conclusion:
The Manéah landslide demonstrates that urban disasters in West Africa are driven by governance failures and social inequities, not exclusively by natural hazards. Effective risk mitigation requires integrating political, ethical, and community-based approaches into urban planning and resilience strategies.
Rapid urbanization in West Africa increasingly exposes populations to hazard-prone areas. The Manéah landslide (Conakry, Guinea, 2025) exemplifies the Anthropocene dynamic, where human decisions, governance failures, and unregulated urban expansion convert biophysical hazards into disasters, disproportionately affecting informal sector workers and residents on unstable slopes. Understanding these interactions is critical for risk-informed urban planning and environmental management.
Objectives:
This study aimed to identify systemic drivers of urban landslide risk in Manéah, integrating biophysical conditions, urban infrastructure, governance mechanisms, and social vulnerability, to provide empirically grounded insights for transformative resilience and disaster risk reduction.
Methods:
A mixed, sequential methodology was employed. Post-disaster fieldwork included a seven-day systematic survey of slope instability, GPS mapping, UAV imagery, and photographic documentation. A socio-economic survey (n=62) captured household losses, income disruption, and recovery expectations. Documentary analysis of ESIA and ESMP reports evaluated compliance and institutional oversight. Quantitative data were analysed using chi-square and Fisher’s exact tests in R, while qualitative data were coded thematically. Spatial analyses employed QGIS, generating slope and hazard maps. Triangulation of field observations, socio-economic responses, and institutional documentation allowed reconstruction of systemic risk drivers and identification of governance and social vulnerabilities amplifying disaster impacts.
Results:
Results reveal that informal sector workers and households on unstable slopes bore the greatest losses, with 95–100% reporting income disruption, while civil servants exhibited higher resilience due to formal employment. Directly affected persons overwhelmingly preferred permanent relocation (92%), whereas displaced households favoured return after stabilization (85%), confirmed by statistically significant chi-square and Fisher’s exact tests. The odds ratio of 242 indicates a stark divergence in recovery aspirations. ESIA and ESMP implementation was largely absent, illustrating governance deficits. Fragmented responsibilities among construction companies and weak regulatory enforcement amplified risk. Overall, disaster impacts were determined more by cumulative governance failures and social vulnerability than by biophysical hazards alone, highlighting structural inequalities.
Conclusion:
The Manéah landslide demonstrates that urban disasters in West Africa are driven by governance failures and social inequities, not exclusively by natural hazards. Effective risk mitigation requires integrating political, ethical, and community-based approaches into urban planning and resilience strategies.
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