Visualising Earthquakes: Plate Boundaries and Seismic Decay
More details
Hide details
1
Graduate School of Bioresource Sciences, Akita Prefectural University, Akita 010-0195, Japan
Submission date: 2026-01-17
Acceptance date: 2026-02-11
Publication date: 2026-03-30
Trends in Ecological and Indoor Environmental Engineering, 2026;4(1):45-59
KEYWORDS
ABSTRACT
Background:
Seismology has accumulated extensive observational data, yet modern statistical methodologies have rarely been applied comprehensively to seismic datasets. Consequently, several long-standing interpretations, including magnitude distributions and aftershock decay laws, may reflect analytical constraints rather than physical processes. Re-examining earthquake behaviour using contemporary statistical tools provides an opportunity to reassess empirical relationships and clarify persistent ambiguities in seismic patterns.
Objectives:
This study applies modern statistical methods to complete seismic datasets to reassess magnitude distributions, aftershock decay, and three-dimensional active-zone structure, testing whether systematic temporal variations, including precursory changes before major earthquakes, can be objectively identified.
Methods:
Earthquake data were obtained from the Japan Meteorological Agency and analysed without any filtering, using a 1° latitude–longitude grid. The grid with the highest count in each year was examined, except for 2011, which focused on the Tohoku earthquake hypocentre. All calculations were performed in R, with three-dimensional visualizations generated using the rgl package. Hypocentre distributions were projected onto plate boundaries using principal component analysis (PCA) in two stages: 3D-to-2D dimensionality reduction and boundary-specific projection. Maps were verified and appropriately transformed to align with square-based latitude–longitude diagrams for quantitative analysis.
Results:
Analysis of hypocentre distributions in Japan identifies two major subducting boundaries, the East and Southwest, connected by the shallow Seto structure. Three-dimensional visualisations and Principal Component Analysis reveal these boundaries as planar yet gently curved, with deeper earthquakes concentrated along the Sanriku plate. The Pacific Plate subducts beneath surrounding plates, influencing lateral displacement of the Philippine Sea Plate and creating complex stress patterns. Hypocentre counts increase prior to major events, while deeper earthquakes tend to exhibit higher magnitudes. Aftershock decay follows a half-life process, with energy release distributed heterogeneously across regions, indicating that seismic activity is controlled by interactions between plate geometry, depth, and elastic properties. These findings provide a more robust framework for interpreting seismicity, revising plate boundary models, and informing risk assessment in Japan.
Conclusion:
Modern statistical analyses clarified Japan's plate boundaries, revised Pacific and Philippine Sea Plate configurations, and updated aftershock decay models, revealing temporal magnitude decay. These findings enhance understanding of earthquake mechanisms, improve seismic hazard assessment, and highlight the need for continued monitoring to address potential false negatives.
REFERENCES (41)
1.
Agafonkin, V. (2025). Leaflet: An open-source JavaScript library for mobile-friendly interactive maps [Computer software].
https://leafletjs.com/.
3.
Ben‐Zion, Y. (2008). Collective behavior of earthquakes and faults: Continuum‐discrete transitions, progressive evolutionary changes, and different dynamic regimes. Reviews of Geophysics, 46(4).
https://doi.org/10.1029/2008RG....
6.
Fujii, T., & Koketsu, K. (Eds.). (2008). Encyclopedia of earthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanoes (Japanese edition). Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo; Maruzen.
9.
Gutenberg, B., & Richter, C. F. (1944). Frequency of earthquakes in California. Bulletin of the Seismological society of America, 34(4), 185–188.
https://authors.library.caltec....
10.
Hayakawa, M. (2012). The Frontier of Earthquake Prediction Studies. Nihon-Senmontosho-Shuppan, Japan, 794 p.
16.
Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA). (2024b). Types of information related to the Nankai Trough earthquake and conditions for its release.
https://www.data.jma.go.jp/eqe....
22.
Kinugasa, Y. (1990). Is the north-eastern Japan a part of the North-American Plate?. Journal of Geography (Chigaku Zasshi), 99(1), 13–17.
https://doi.org/10.5026/jgeogr....
25.
Konishi, T. (2025b). Identifying Seismic Anomalies through Latitude-Longitude Mesh Analysis. In Preprints: Preprints.
26.
Konishi, T. (2025c). Seismic pattern changes before the 2011 Tohoku earthquake revealed by exploratory data analysis: Interpretation, T725–T735.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1190/INT-....
27.
Konishi, T. (2025d). Earthquake Swarm Activity in the Tokara Islands (2025): Statistical Analysis Indicates Low Probability of Major Seismic Event. GeoHazards, 6(3), 52.
https://www.mdpi.com/2624-795X....
28.
Malyshev, Y. F., Podgornyi, V. Y., Shevchenko, B. F., Romanovskii, N. P., Kaplun, V. B., & Gornov, P. Y. (2007). Deep structure of the Amur lithospheric plate border zone. Russian Journal of Pacific Geology, 1(2), 107–119.
https://doi.org/10.1134/S18197....
29.
Murdoch, D., Adler, D., Nenadic, O., Urbanek, S., Chen, M., Gebhardt, A., Bolker, B., Csardi, G., Strzelecki, A., Senger, A., Tea, T. R. C., et al. (2025). rgl: 3D visualization using OpenGL [Computer software].
https://cran.r-project.org/web....
31.
National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience. (2025). J‑SHIS Map [Web map]. Japan Seismic Hazard Information Station.
https://www.j-shis.bosai.go.jp....
32.
NRC, National Research Council (US) Committee on Vision. (1985). Emergent techniques for assessment of visual performance. National Academies Press.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/b....
33.
Ōmori, F. (1894). On the after-shocks of earthquakes (Vol. 7). The Journal of the College of Science, Imperial University of Tokyo, 7, pp. 111–200.
https://scholar.google.com/sch....
34.
R Core Team. (2025). R: A language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria.
37.
The Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion (HERP). (2009). New promotion of earthquake research: Comprehensive basic policies for the promotion of observation, measurement, surveys, and research on earthquakes [PDF].
https://www.jishin.go.jp/main/....
40.
Utsu, T., & Ogata, Y. (1995). The centenary of the Omori formula for a decay law of aftershock activity. Journal of Physics of the Earth, 43(1), 1–33.
https://doi.org/10.4294/jpe195....
41.
Yamashita, N. (1976). The structural geological problems of the Fossa Magna: Its history and current status. The Journal of the Geological Society of Japan, 82(7), 489–492.
http://dx.doi.org/10.5575/geos....